Revolution 2010: A Summary of Actual Events in KG

So yesterday I provided my personal perspective on the events leading up to this week's revolutionary activities in Kyrgyzstan. A couple of you found it useful, so I'm going to continue with a summary of the main events of the past few days, as I understand them. Just to be clear, my account is totally NOT definitive. This is just a synthesis of information I've picked up from sights like neweurasia.net, fergana.ru, diesel.elcat.kg, 24.kg, and Facebook posts from those in the country and other observers. For a good summary of information and causes, there is an article on Salon. The New Republic also does a decent, and shorter summary. The article from someone associated with Soros in the Daily Beast was an absurd bit of propaganda and encapsulates much of what drives me crazy about press coverage of Central Asia.

Apparently there have been some protests gathering steam in Naryn Oblast, a northern, central province, since March. On April 6, in Talas, another northern province, after what seems to be police provocation till-then peaceful protesters turned out in greater numbers and eventually took over a government building and established a new provincial government (there seems to have been some back and forth with security forces retaking the building before being driven out again). A Bakiev government official was badly beaten, with initial reports claiming death, but he appears to have survived, although I saw a picture that is shocking and horrifying.

In Bishkek, the government began rounding up and arresting opposition leaders. In response, protesters began gathering and heading toward the main square and the presidential residence. It sounds like police responded immediately with tear gas, truncheons, and eventually began firing live bullets on the crowd. There are conflicting reports, but it seems that protesters were not armed until they began to fight back. Security forces were unprepared for the number and anger of protesters and began to be overwhelmed, allowing certain of the protesters to acquire their guns. I have my own suspicions over whether EVERY weapon in play was acquired in this way, but there's really no way for me to tell.

Things then descended pretty much into chaos. My best guess is that the government was absolutely shocked by people actually fighting back. Despair and anger had simply reached such a point that the destruction of the Bakiev regime became the end in itself. It doesn't seem that most of the protesters were united under opposition leadership, or that there was some kind of organized goal. People are ANGRY and there were no legitimate avenues to air grievances or push for change. This makes the interim government's position super shaky--there are all kinds of groups and interests represented in the coalition currently in charge of the country, and who knows who is going to come out on top. There is certainly the possibility of a change for the better and in the direction of transparency and democracy, and Roza Otunbaeva, the head of the interim government, certainly has put in the time working for these goals. However, she's also got little support in KG and part of the reason she's in charge right now of an unelected government is that she hasn't got a chance in hell as things stand of winning an election in six months or ever. So it's good that an unelected government seems to be ruling by coalition for the moment, but it also opens up the possibility of a power vacuum that could be problematic because . . .

While Bakiev fled almost immediately, he didn't follow in previously deposed President Akayev's footsteps and flee to Russia. Instead he holed up in the South, Jalalabad Oblast, likely moving around a bit. He seems to be with his brothers and son, who all had positions within his government that they used to facilitate being super, super shady. I used to live not far from a nightclub that Maksim Bakiev owned. I would say that as much as people (northerners) hate Kurmanbek Bakiev, they hate Maksim a whole lot more. There is a chance that Bakiev is trying to urge supporters to his cause, but my gut and what I've read think that the chance of people taking up arms against the new government is small. There has been some back and forth haggling, with personal safety being guaranteed to Bakiev in return for surrender. He was holding out for immunity for himself and his family, which seems super unlikely. But if the interim government can get a hold of the country and maintain control, it is likely that he will have to resign. The real trouble could come if competing elements within the coalition government allow for greater collapse and anger in the south causes people to rally to Bakiev's side. It's kind of a waiting game, although it's really hard to imagine Russia, the US, and even China allowing Kyrgyzstan to fall into any kind of armed civil conflict, even if the worst case scenario within Kyrgyzstan were to take place.

As far as I can tell, the way things stand now is in exhausted calm. There was crazy ass looting in Bishkek, and believe me, seeing one's old stomping grounds burned, looted, destroyed and with bloody protesters piling up is an uncomfortable sensation. The provisional government did give permission to police to shoot looters (looters seem to have been suspiciously organized to have been regular citizens taking advantage of lawlessness and free booze on the shelves) and initially organized citizens to defend property. The citizen guards have been told to stand down and people have been told it is safe to return to the streets. Memorials and funerals were held for some of the slain: the toll seems to stand at 77 dead and over 500 injured in Bishkek. I heard that Peace Corps had gathered volunteers in secret and secure locations and that Embassy staff were moved to Manas Air Base, but private citizens were on their own and doing fine. No one is getting in or out of the country. First acts of the new government were to nullify the constitution (mainly because of the provision granting immunity to prosecution to the president).

Overall there has been a large amount of information available to the interested public, although a lot of sifting is required and lots of rumors were swirling about, especially earlier in the conflict. Hopefully with calm will come real peace, and actual progress forward can be made. I'm still trying to get in touch with some of my nearest and dearest in the country who are not tied in to social networking and new media like Westerners and many young people. I'm hoping that since things are calm, phone calls tonight will get through. I'm not seriously worried about the physical safety of those I know best, but it turns out that when there's an armed uprising that topples a government in a country you know and love, it's easy to worry about people living through it.

I'm sure this is all very muddled. If you have any questions, please post in the comments, and I'll try to answer or direct you to a source better able to answer. Please keep Kyrgyzstan in your thoughts even as other world events take precedence: much of the main stream media coverage has focused almost exclusively on how events affect the US air base used as a staging ground for transport to Afghanistan, but as distant as they seem, we're talking about real people in desperate situations who only want the best for themselves, their family and their country. There is a new group on Facebook dedicated to helping rebuild; as soon as I can figure out who or what is doing any sort of effecting aid I'll be coming around asking for anything that people can give to help. But it will take time before any sort of legitimate efforts can be made. Time that people in Kyrgyzstan have plenty of, because believe me, things aren't going to get better overnight.