Some History and Some Context

So this is a brief, hopefully at least semi-coherent summary of what is going on in the south of Kyrgyzstan right now. I'm taking my information from what media is available, blog posts, and reports passed through acquaintances. Official reports tend to be not worth a tremendous amount in times like these in settings like KG, hence the reliance on fourth-hand reports. I'm trying to be succinct and informative for an audience who mostly doesn't spend a lot of time working on stuff in Central Asia, so I'll leave out links and citations (much is in Russian; much more is in Kyrgyz, but that stuff is hard for me). If you want more information, however, I'll be happy to oblige. I also welcome comments and corrections from anyone who comes across this and would like to amend, elaborate, or provide a different perspective.

From what I can tell, things have been tense in the South since the change in government on April 7. Bakiev, the ousted president, is from the South, and he held out in his home village for a time, sparking fears of continued unrest and a possible Civil War similar to the war in Tajikistan in the mid-90s. Most observers were pleased when he resigned and fled to sanctuary in Belarus, although members of his family remain, and there have been (alleged?) taped recordings among his relatives and cronies regarding the possibility of regaining power.

In mid-May unrest burst to the surface in regional southern governments, as pro-Bakiev forces, mainly young men (likely unemployed, possibly from among those who have lost their jobs in Russia that were contributing largely to the Kyrgyz economy and the loss of which has been yet another way in which the world economic crisis has been affecting Kyrgyzstan), briefly took over government ministries and installed new regional governors. These lasted all of a day; order was quickly resolved.

Before I get to what is going on this week, a digression on ethnic tension in Kyrgyzstan. Under the Soviet Union, Russians were kind of the supreme ethnicity, and since independence there has been much push-back against this. Opposition political parties often hold all speeches in Kyrgyz, etc. Symbols of nationalism are explicitly and implicitly tied to symbols of Kyrgyz ethnicity. The word for “citizen of Kyrgyzstan” is never used in normal speech; rather the speaker identifies herself and others by their ethnicity. And people are quick to ascribe characteristics and behaviors to people based on those ethnicities. This would be a problem anywhere, but is particularly so in Kyrgyzstan given the extreme heterogeneity of the population. There are over 80 different ethnic groups represented in a population of about 5.25 million. The majority are Kyrgyz, but that still amounts to less than 2/3 of the population. Uzbeks comprise approximately 16% of the population, largely in the south, and Russians are somewhere around 10-12%, mostly in Bishkek and northern areas. Tension between Kyrgyz and Uzbek is of long-standing, and some sources even claim that that the Soviet Union encouraged these tensions. Uzbeks have a reputation for being more successful in commercial endeavors, which some Kyrgyz resent. There were violent outbreaks shortly before the fall of the SU, in 1990, but since then things have been mostly calm.

Right now, Osh has been largely destroyed. At least 100 are dead and 1000 injured, and those numbers are likely to grow exponentially as better information is gathered and disseminated. Uzbek homes and buildings have been burned and razed. First-person reports have told of empty streets, filled only with cars carrying groups of Kyrgyz young men, often drunk, and often armed. Violence has moved on to Jalal-Abad.

Many have tried to flee—from one ethnic Russian citizen of Osh observing that it is women, children, and the elderly fleeing, while men remain behind to try to defend their property. Initially, Uzbekistan was not allowing refugees in, but that has changed. There are reports that at one border crossing a stampede left up to dozens dead, including children. The UN thus far has done nothing to intervene. The Otunbaeva interim government seems completely powerless. They have called on Russia for help, but Russia has thus far declined to send in troops. If Russia does get a military hold in the country, that raises all kinds of concerns for the future of an independent Kyrgyzstan. This is all happening just prior to the scheduled June 27th referendum on the new Constitution, which was seen by many as a vote on confidence in the provisional government. There are rumors that Bakievites have had some role in the violence, whether inciting, arming, or some other provocation, but at the moment all this is is rumor.

International observers, like me, have been shocked at how quickly the situation flared up into such shocking violence. I'm well aware of the history and the ongoing ethnic tensions, but I've also done work in areas from which people are fleeing and had people talk about the harmony in which people of different ethnic groups are able to live with their neighbors. There is a very high level of inter-marriage; many families do not neatly fall into one ethnic group. It's distressing to think that the mainstream media is likely to try to report on this the way they reported on the Balkans—talking about ancient ethnic strife that the West just can't understand, as if Kyrgyzstanis are somehow other. Right now, my best guess for what is going on is terrible economic conditions, political instability and fear, taking on the ugliest possible face and allowing all these prejudices to come out and play in, thus far, consequence free (for the perpetrators) ways. It is a terrible black spot on any new government Kyrgyzstan can try to pull together. Citizens are desperately fleeing to one of the most repressive regimes in the world to escape their fellow countrymen—it's not the new country those hopeful after April 7 were looking for.

Like I said, please leave comments, questions, etc. I'll do my best to follow up on anything and can certainly provide a more researched take on these issues if it will help anyone. I want to do my part to let the world know what is going on in KG, as standing silently by can only help the chaos continue.